barton deakin?
KEVIN RUDD will use
the election campaign in Queensland as the springboard for a renewed push to
wrest the prime ministership back from Julia Gillard, Labor Party insiders
predict.
The
Foreign Minister, who represents the Brisbane seat of Griffith, has promised
''I will help any campaign that they want me to'' during the state election,
which pits the Labor Premier, Anna Bligh, against the former Brisbane lord
mayor Campbell Newman, now Liberal National Party leader.
Labor
insiders say Mr Rudd's involvement in the campaign for the March 24 election is
designed to boost his profile, highlight the disparity in popularity between
the former and present prime ministers, remind his caucus colleagues how
crucial Queensland is in the next federal election - and inevitably stoke
leadership tensions.
''This
is all about the re-rise of Kevin,'' one former confidant of Mr Rudd said.
''Kevin is still a strong chance of coming back this year.''
But
Mr Rudd's spokeswoman said: ''The sole purpose of Mr Rudd's involvement in the
Queensland election is to support Labor and his good friend Anna Bligh in what
will be a tough campaign.''
John
Howard's former adviser, Grahame Morris, said federal Labor had to pick up four
or five more seats in Queensland if it was to have any chance of retaining
government.
''This
election is important not only for Queenslanders, I think it's important for
Julia Gillard,'' Mr Morris said. ''If it is shown that Labor is still very
smelly in Queensland, then Kevin Rudd comes back into the equation because
Kevin Rudd can pick up seats in Queensland.''
Ms
Gillard is particularly unpopular in Queensland because of the way she deposed
Mr Rudd and the perceived effect her carbon and mining taxes will have on the
state.
''Labor
is in trouble, so they pull out Queensland's favourite son,'' a former Labor
Party official said. ''They'll keep Julia a million miles away from it because
she is so unpopular.''
The
veteran Labor campaign manager Bruce Hawker, who is running the Queensland
campaign, said Mr Rudd would be welcomed for his campaigning skills, ''whatever
happens in Canberra in the coming weeks and months''.
''If
[leadership tension] becomes a byproduct of his campaigning, you accept there
is always going to be residual feeling in the community about the manner of his
dismissal in June 2010,'' Mr Hawker said. ''It's too early to speculate on
anything there.''
Mr
Rudd is not expected to make any move on the leadership until after the
Queensland poll, which Labor is tipped to lose badly. The most recent Newspoll
put it 12 percentage points behind the LNP on a two-party-preferred basis.
''If
the result is very bad in Queensland for Labor, it will put enormous pressure
on Julia Gillard,'' one senior Queensland party figure said. ''It will make
Queensland MPs extremely nervous. Kevin will be telling them that a state
wipeout will make it very hard to hold their seats. He's convincing people that
only he can save them … it's not whether you love Kevin more or you love Kevin
less, it's that you love your seat best.''
A
loss would not only reinforce the impression Labor is on the nose in
Queensland, but hurt the party's capacity to fight the federal election in the
state. The state party machine would be in disarray and federal Labor could not
draw on the powerful resources of a state government.
''We're
going to have a very fractured party that has to fight a really tough election
in 18 months' time,'' the former party official said.

